I have done some rough estimations for different market cap scenario of Terra2.
Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | Scenario 5 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Market Cap | 5,000,000,000 | 8,000,000,000 | 20,000,000,000 | 30,000,000,000 | 45,000,000,000 |
25% | 1,250,000,000 | 2,000,000,000 | 5,000,000,000 | 7,500,000,000 | 11,250,000,000 |
Total Outstanding UST | 11,280,000,000 | 11,280,000,000 | 11,280,000,000 | 11,280,000,000 | 11,280,000,000 |
Value / UST | 0.110815603 | 0.177304965 | 0.443262411 | 0.664893617 | 0.997340426 |
Please help me to correct my math or way of thinking this through.
β At the current price of 0.11 UST, the market is assuming Terra2 worth 5B. thatβs somewhere between the marketcap between Near and Tron.
β If the UST holder wanted a full recover, Terra 2 need to have the value of current BNB now in 2 years times.
β If Terra 2 recover from their preattack market cap, which is around 30B now, UST holder will recover 66%.
2 years is a long time for crypto. But also it would be enough time for the capable team to build a new and valuable L1. What do you think which scenario will have the highest possiblities?