I’m not quite sure if my calculations are correct, but in order for the new Luna to be worth it for people with only UST, you need to believe that the new Luna chain will be worth 20 - 60 billion in 2 years’ time to break even. Is that correct?
Here are my calculations based on Do Kwon’s proposal.
There are 250,000,000 new Luna tokens for UST holders (25% of the billion new Luna tokens).
Suppose that you are holding X UST total, whatever X is.
Suppose that there’s somewhere between 5 and 15 billion UST by the time of launch. Right now there are about 11 billion. I calculated this based on Coingecko’s data (market cap divided by price per UST): 968,008,249/0.085044 = 11,382,440,254.5.
Since the snapshot for UST is at launch, that number may change. I’m guessing it will fall between 5 and 15 billion. Let’s suppose that it’ll be 10 billion UST by the snapshot date. Then your share of UST is X/10,000,000,000.
Then you will get 250,000,000 * (X/10,000,000,000) new Luna tokens. Then the total worth of this depends on the price per new Luna token, call it L.
Suppose you paid $X for your X UST tokens (assuming you didn’t buy anymore when the price is low). Then in order for the worth of the new Luna tokens to be at least the amount you paid for, you would want: 250,000,000 * (X/10,000,000,000) L >= X. So, you would need L >= 40. In other words, the new chain should be worth 40 billion.
If you tried the calculation again with 5 billion or 15 billion, then you get L >= 20 or L >= 60. So you would need to believe the new chain would be worth at least 20 billion in two years to make this proposal worth it for you.
I honestly don’t think it’ll be worth anything near 20 billion. If everyone between now and snapshot date sells their UST and there’s only several hundred million UST left, then maybe this new chain will be worth it for you. Otherwise, probably not.