High volume in this context for me didn’t matter if it is multiple small tx or one big as both incur the same tax (besides gas fees) - Station also always referred to “volume” for the overall amount of moved coins, not tx count.
From December 1st, 2022 we had ~785B MsgSend overall.
125B of that were transactions with an amount of >= 1B in a single tx (45 tx from 28 distinct wallets, which does not include binance-internal tx), 186B with an amount >= 100M (866 tx from 230 wallets, excluding the 1B+ of course) and
24B of it were transactions with an amount < 1M in a single tx (257,000 tx from 26,600 distinct wallets).
What I meant is that users with big transactions are (as far as I am aware) more sensitive to tax than the smaller ones.
Also your maths don’t take into account the binance whitelisting. 202B (2880 tx) (not included in the above 785B) was from Binance-internal wallet movements (deposit → main wallet). So tax income will anyway drop by ~20% (MsgSend only!) with that whitelisting.
During the 1.2% tax we had ~215B MsgSend volume, 31B of that where tx > 1B (12 tx with 9 distinct wallets), 42B >= 100M (159 tx from 77 wallets) and 11.6B tx < 1M (102,000 from 16,000 distinct wallets).
Of course this is all speculation, but compared to the current volume (~16% 1B+, 24% 100M+, ~3% low amount) it was different with high tax (~14% 1B+, 19.5% 100M+, ~5.5% low amount).
Before tax was in place (and also before staking was re-enabled) the 1B+ transactions made ~39% of all MsgSend, 100M+ transactions ~42% and those < 1M only ~4% of the overall LUNC moved. Again, binance internal movements excluded.
This might all be completely unrelated, but my personal(!) opinion is that high-amount movements react much more sensitive to each tax adjustment than lower amount movements. As they make a high percentage of the volume (in coins, not tx) this will probably affect tax income.
So let’s say we raise tax for sends to 0.35% (+75%). Binance will probably get whitelisted if the community doesn’t want them to stop burning. Contract executions are excluded from tax. High-amount tx will get less (hopefully not much), overall tx volume will also likely go down a bit due to tax raised. I doubt we can reach a +50 to +75% in tax income.
By the way, when we talk about LUNC the numbers for contract share of volume seems quite correct, but when talking about USTC also (which has the same tax implications) it’s ~15% of the USTC volume, mostly terraswap and auto-trading I think.
Anybody can gladly check my numbers, maybe I have a mistake in there.
However this all now has drifted quite far away from the original proposal done in here as to me it seems it is highly related to a following tax adjustment so not only this proposal itself but also the implications that come with it should be taken into account.