It reached $0.8 yesterday and I thought they had it under control and was going to repeg soon. Looked like the minting luna plan was working and would be over soon, and decided to step in and buy. Best decision I’ve ever made…
Any updates from their Telegram or is it radio silence?
They’ve shut down the blockchain again until they figure out what to do. I was confident enough in anchor to put a huge part of my savings in. I got punished for this but I managed to get out after taking a huge hair cut. What a terrible week.
All the efforts were just too slow, too late.
Lack of pre-planning, and lack of crisis responses.
LUNA is dead, UST is pennies on the dollar.
Sad to see this happening…
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So right. the very fact that for 3 days after the De-peg the team didnt communicate should have been a clue that they were in over their heads.
well Do Kwon is a star, he will just take these experiences and go build further. its us plebs who will be left back licking our wounds.
Its amazing that even when this proposal was put forward, there was never an urgency to get ahead of the issue…
all the best to all of you in the Luna community…what a way to decimate an amazing community. all the best
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Can UST be integrated into another stablecoin with mint/burn mechanism (e.g. Waves, Tron or Frax)? So that instead of mint/burning Waves/USDN, can also mint/burn UST? That way, can arbitrage UST back to peg? Whether the founders would agree is another thing. But would this be feasible assuming they agree?
Currently luna sits at 0.000367, while UST is at an all time low.
By the time this proposal passes, there’s gona be so many zero’s a speck of dust will have more mass. 
Continue enjoying the elevator music guys. 
Yeah this was utterly disappointing. No sense of urgency when it was needed and now the entire system is utterly screwed.
Executive action could have saved the peg but none of the capital that was promised never came.
Indeed the project is dead but Do kwon rather keep giving fake hope and taking the money
Numbers are a bit off but at this point 
UST has a circulating supply of 12.12B
- It has a market cap of $7.4B
- To restore peg 12.12B - 7.4B = 4.72B of UST needs to be burned
- Terra validators have overwhelmingly agreed that this is what must be done, UST must be burned and peg must be restored
- To burn UST (and restore peg), you need to mint new LUNA
- To burn 1 UST you need to mint $1.00 worth of LUNA
- Let’s do some simple math
- Say we can burn all the excess UST all at once right now, and restore peg
- To burn this 4.7B of UST we would need to mint $4.7B worth of LUNA
- At the current price of LUNA ($0.03), this means we would have to mint ~156B LUNA
- In this scenario, the circulating supply of LUNA would increase from 3.5B to ~160B (increase 45x)
- The price of LUNA will decrease to ~$0.0006
- Now you could in theory begin to slowly burn down that 160B circulating supply of LUNA (does this sound impossible and like a terrible investment? IT SHOULD SOUND IMPOSSIBLE AND LIKE A TERRIBLE INVESTMENT)
- The scenario described above is a made up fantasy and is not possible
- What’s really going to happen is actually infinitely worse
- First problem: You can’t burn all 4.7B UST at once because you can’t mint 156B LUNA at once
- There is a limit on how much LUNA can be minted in one day
- Right now, they are voting to increase the limit
- This leads us to problem #2
- Second problem: As you mint LUNA, the price of LUNA goes down (LUNA is diluted), which means to burn more UST, you need to mint even more LUNA, until you descend into a vicious feedback loop of all out LUNA minting madness
- This is referred to by validators and people who understand the protocol as the “death spiral”
- Right now you can burn $1B UST by minting 33B LUNA
- The circulating supply of LUNA goes from 3.5B to 38.5B
- The price of LUNA is now 0.0027
- You then burn your next $1B UST by minting 1,000,000,000/0.0027 = 370B LUNA
- You burned your first $1B UST by minting 33B LUNA. The next $1B UST by minting 370B LUNA
- The next $1B UST would take trillions and trillions of LUNA
- I used $1B chunks just as an example
- Obviously the size of the burns would be much smaller as it depends on UST holders’ bags
- The point is, LUNA can’t recover unless they just decide to fundamentally change how the protocol works, which would result in Do Kwan and everybody else on the project being instantly indicted for fraud
3 Likes
Just a bit of math here. If UST circulating supply is 12B. Current prices range from $0.06 - $0.1, Market Cap is… $1.2B at the most, so 11Bn UST needs to be burnt…
It’s never going get out of this down trend. Best we can do is inform new investors to stay away. even trying to day trade it is iffy.
all the things to be needed for rescue Ust and Luna have been spoiled. it’s the why that your team which is composed of fake specialists.
you guys killed the Luna, spoiled the crypto market.
you are deceivers which is very idiot, fuck up.
nothing to be implemented, remaining regrets.
i regret not to suspect DoKwon
2 Likes
Why they can’t do hardfork?
Anyone knows about this?
1 Like
In general your math is correct. The inverse burn rate, inverse proportional to rewards rate will allow Luna to rise in relative price once there is no incentive for traders to continue front running the short. This point of peak volatility is max pain. This is where nearly every “lunatic” says bad things about the project and becomes gloomy, even influencers lament. But this is critically where the move will occur to the opposite side. Because, in fact, your mint rate of Luna will slow down. This allows burning to increase and reverse price. A couple of things need to happen though:
-
Volatility wavers due to lack of shorting opportunity. This can be due to temporary delistings, freezing the chain, exchanges suspending leverage, exchanges suspending shorting. At this point, shorting capabilities are impaired.
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The ecosystem fires up slowly. Some risk on traders make profit on the few remaining exchanges that offer spot trading. The word then spreads. The blockchain resets it’s mint reward down again. Burn rate increases. This effect can provide a controllable volatility pump. Volatility can be harvested.
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The LFG must prioritize relisting for Luna to work the Luna side of the equation some.
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Once Luna rises a bit, adjust UST mint rate again, but to a lesser degree. Slowly winding down the swings in the algo.
In summary, the algo is workable, but the volatility is hard to calculate from simulations. The distribution is probably non-gaussian or even non-gamma. Could be poisson, I’m not sure, but it’s got kurtosis, tails and skewness. Lastly, put emotions aside and work your algo.
2 Likes
Well…I F*CKING TOLD YOU to stop your plan since Monday…
It was so fcking obvious that this will happen (LUNA to the fcking ground and without any chance to save UST due to the insane difference in both Mcaps and hyperinflation that it’s insulting even for the intelligence of a f*cking monkey).
I was supporting you guys during the attack by injecting a lot of money un Sunday and Monday until I realised about my huge mistake after Do made pubic Terra’s genius plan, that totally worth a Nobel prize in economy.
Have fun in court and always remember how many families you just have destroyed, by losing everything, or even for committing suicide. (Not due to the attack, but for you completely incompetent and criminal reaction to that event.)
F*ck you.
4 Likes
scam lol
Has as many 0s as Shiba Inu now >.>
Agreed the plan is pretty bad, it doesn’t seem smart to drive the price into the ground minting and then speeding up the minting after the price is so low.
How they think this will work, I do not know.
But I was not invested to begin with.
1 Like
For questions to the Proposal:
$LUNA and $UST crashed before this Proposal is implemented.
This Proposal has not taken effect at this moment, and have no direct bearing to $LUNA and $UST’s collapse.
What we all have observed is how the market works.
The market will find equilibrium, one way or another.
Above said, the low Mint/Burn throughput is one of the key contribution factor to $LUNA and $UST’s death spiral (in addition to the protocol design itself).
If there are enough Mint/Burn throughput, a lot more $UST could have been burned during the early hours of $UST de-peg, while $LUNA is still trading at higher price. This would generate much less dilution of $LUNA.
If we look at the first $UST de-peg period, $LUNA is trading around $30-$40, then stabilizing at around $30. During the same period, $UST continue to remain de-pegged, stabilizing at $0.95
During this period, more than $8B $UST has been withdrawn from Anchor Protocol, but less than $1B $UST has been burned.
The reason for so few $UST burned is because the Mint/Burn capacity limit.
These over hanging $UST will need to be burned. This is just how the market works.
Unfortunately, the $UST burning speed never caught up with the speed of withdrawal, and leaving a lot of over hanging $UST in the market.
When billions more $UST gets burned at later time, they were burned at much worse $LUNA price, resulting in much worse and significant dilution to $LUNA. Then the spiral.
Unfortunately, the effort to save $UST and $LUNA is too late.
This is indeed a very sad outcome.
3 Likes