Reasons why price LUNA price can drop heavily, and ways to avoid them

Hello. Greetings to all.
So, I want to understand the LUNA tokenomics. 20% of the supply will be provided to the existing LUNA (now LUNC) and UST holders. Most of the people honestly don’t have any trust left in Terra eco-system. Many (maybe most) of them will try to sell their LUNA coins as soon as they recieve them. Won’t that lead to a panic sell situation where the price of new token will continue to fall ?
Can LFG use the remaining ~300 BTC to create a buy pressure to counter the initial sell?

considering that TERRA is just another LAYER-1 blockchain now, how can you get the institutions to work in TERRA ecosystem now? There is no peg system like LUNC, where the token price can increase due to the increasing demand of UST and hence, ecosystem. So, for the price to increase, institutions and token holders need to have belief in the coin, which i severely low at this stage.

What I am guessing is, the initial sell pressure will be deadly for even TERRA V2, and the Eco-system will slowly bleed down.

As a token holder, I need to have confidence in the token, for which I need to have a detailed idea regarding the future prospects and projects in the Eco-system. (Remember, TERRA is just any other L1 blockchain now, and there are literally 1000 others in the crypto space).

I think LFG should provide a detailed idea about how they are going to function in the futures, and what are their plans for the same. That’s the only way I see, that people can regain some of the confidence.

hat are some other ways you can suggest for regaining the lost confidence at this stage?

Not trying to sound negative in this post, I just had these serious doubts, so i decided to post.
Sorry for the bad english. It’s not my first language.


you are right

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you will sell. and someone will buy, everyone will choose their own

I bought just under a billion tokens at 0.00000112 - You bet your ass that I’m going to be looking to make a profit and gtfo!

I just want to get back the 12 eth I spent at $30 dollars down to $1 and I’m done.

I have lost my faith in this project, sadly - after years of supporting it - it’ll take a LOT to make me believe otherwise - but, alas - I’m here for the ride until then.

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+1 here: I think this is a very legit request.

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It doesn’t matter. All of the people will want to sell their token and get whatever price they can get and get out of the ecosystem which they don’t trust.


I agree this will probably happen and the price of new $LUN will eventually drop. Nevertheless, depending on the solidity of the project and of the financial support it may revive in a later stage. Hence, the question is relevant if one has longer terms investing objectives.
At the end, this is a new project and as such it needs to be assessed (part of the assessment, of course, is that this “new” project starts from where the LUNA disaster ends, pros and cons).

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Open market is like this, you may drop and others as well.
And others will see it as an opportunity.

I really like the Luna project, the UST peg and Anchor was a merchandise that was exploited, and imploded due a series of mistakes and misleads.

Avoid mixing ideals with investments. :wink:

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Not exactly. When a new coin launches, it has a whitepaper explaining the technicals. It also provides the future projects, prospects and goals for the coin in the future. None of them is present here.

Open market is fine, yes true, and without the above two, it may not survive. That’s why I am asking them regarding the future projects they are considering. It’s the only way for investors to have a confidence in the TERRA eco-system.

Your last statement basically says the same. No investor will hold the coins because of their ideals, they need to have a solid reason for the same. and that’s what I wrote in the above paragraph.


I certainly don’t disagree, but the devs have taken steps to try to stem that tide at least initially by tying the airdrop to the 21 day unbonding period (similar to an insider lockup in the US stock market) and then a vesting period. So they did think that part through at least. I think what they are banking on is having that 21 day buffer to be able to make announcements, issue new whitepaper, etc to try to rebuild belief in the ecosystem before people are able to jump ship.

Will it work? In my opinion, no chance, because after the debacle we saw people will simply want to recover as much of their loss as they can (myself included) and dive into another DeFi protocol with whatever funds they can recover. I was a blind Terra believer and am paying the price - but lesson learned here.

Not sure exactly where the market will value this right away, but I think we will inevitably see a deep dive after 21 days.

I think a new white paper should be created asap, we lack a clear mission now and we will need to come up with new and ingenious ideas to rebuild the ecosystem. The stablecoin project should be reassumed and perfected imo, since stablecoins are going to be the pillars of the nascent economy.

TBH, if they don’t do anything in the unbonding period, 21 days unbonding doesn’t mean a thing. All the new LUNA would be unbonded at the same time, creating the same panic sell.
They could have considered some kind of layered unbonding where some percentage of LUNA is unbonded for several days.

Vesting period is just a way of them giving the hope. People don’t care about what happens to the token after 2 years. They are just keen to get whatever amount they are going to get TODAY, which will create the panic sell situation.

@AutoCANE can you explain how vesting can prevent the price drop?
Thank you.

No one knows and any prediction now has a high probability of failing.
For me, the main reason is that the world economy is heading into a recession. Everyone speaks about it. The connection between crypto market and traditional markets cannot be neglected.
Briefly, starting a new project without considering the current global economic indicators is risky, remind you that the same project has a recent failure. On the other hand, if working on the same project and somehow there is a possibility to recover it, I can see great hype around it, which can lead to top 10 crypto asset, or more if I were too optimistic.

Looks like you only need LUNC price to hit 0.00022 to exit on an even keel. And your v2 will be bunce. Not too bad a hope perhaps, considering how some people have been fully rinsed out.

I’m one of the few in these forums coming in without pain and with new perspective. I didn’t hold before the crash, but did invest some new money prior to the snapshot. Just what happens next will be interesting to be a part of and I fully hope to be able to help vote in the right proposals to help make a success of things.

As difficult as it will be for many, finding a modicum of positivity can only help.


Whatever it takes, a coin cannot live without a purpose. First rebuilding the stablecoin and then probably introducing some innovation, that’s the path we should take


@Abbas_Baldiwala - I totally agree with everything you said. I don’t think the vesting airdrops will prevent the price drop at all. I expect it - trust in this system has been crippled. I think it’s just their mechanism, their only potential defense in this scenario to try to stem the tide. To buy time and create hope.

The biggest thing as you and other posters have mentioned - there has not been to date any indication of what exactly the purpose or use case will be for this new token. Without that, why would anyone want to hold it?

I expect a mass exodus into other DeFi protocols very quickly.

A former Terra believer


If you buy LUNC/LUNA pair with your new LUNA, you can avoid losses…