So you think Luna 2.0 will succeed? Read this to understand the consequences

General
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Hi Luna Community,

Looking at the proposal vote, I guess it is safe to say that Luna 2.0 will be launched. Whether the votes are rigged, we will never know. Same reason that we will never know what really happened to LUNA / UST.

But over the last week, I have been gathering information from many sources. This is what I know.

  1. One of the reasons why many people have voted for Luna 2.0 is because they lost alot of money. So voting YES, is the only hope of getting “Some money” back.

  2. However, luna buyers have to be realistic when reading the proposal. You will only be able to get a small fraction of the money you lost. There is no way you can recover the money you have lost if you purchased Luna at a high price.

3.Many people will be disappointed. Although you voted yes, many users will not qualify for the airdrop. Example, Luna coins not in the wallet, they sold the coins away etc .

4.There is a reason why the proposal does not contain any technical specifics or calculator. A tool that you can gauge how much new luna coin you will be getting. Right now, everything is all very vague. High level % are mentioned but the main question is, do you qualify to be inside the %?

  1. The idea from the team is to push the proposal out as soon as possible. If they were to inform you the exact coins you will be getting, everyone will be rejecting the proposal. This is why they even had to made revisions along the way. "Embracing “agile project management”

  2. Once users are aware of the coins they will be getting (Maybe on the day itself), there will be a backlash. However, there is nothing you can do then because the community has voted. This is why Terra team is pushing for this proposal to go through.

These are my predictions:

  1. Luna 2.0 will not be smooth sailing. New investors will be risk adverse to LUNA and the team creating it. After this incident, see how the luna team communicates to the public? It was a PR disaster. Everyone was kept unaware except for a few tweets here and there. It has been 1 week already. Surely, an organisation that used to hold billions of dollars can hire a PR team to effectively communicate to the respective stakeholders?

  2. Many users will feel cheated that they have voted for Luna 2.0 and not receive the amount of coins (if any) they had hoped for. Prices will not go up fast because 1) Luna team has gained bad reputation for managing this crisis. 2) No one is going to put their life savings into luna 2.0 anymore. 2) Your Luna foundation is as good as bankrupt.

  3. In the near future, luna classic will fall and slowly rise up , just like how a meme coin trends. However, I do believe that the trend will be upwards but it will be slowly. Perhaps end of year or early next year, we can hit 0.0005. However, do not expect it to hit 0.01 or 0.1 unless burning of luna coins are done. Burning is also not possible unless there are investors who are willing to pool in funds to save Luna.

These are my predictions and thoughts. Do share yours

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One of the most sensible projection I have read thus far in this forum including realistic projection for Luna Classic.

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What makes no sense is forking and advertizing for a brand new chain in this context. No confidence at all. Luna 2.0 doesn’t give them a clean slate. Putting efforts into original Terra chain via burn could have reinstated sopme sort of confidence, the project still having all its infrastructures intact, just needing some changes. Abandonning it for 2.0 seems to much like a beginner magic trick.

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New tokens calculator

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Agree this is one of the most sober and realistic assessment of what will happen.
DK put in immense vesting periods to ‘satisfy’ his investors by keeping the token price from du_mping as point 2, but you must realize that vesting periods are a double edged sword. If you want to know what a ‘vesting period’ unlock does to a price, just check out a token history with vesting periods. And remember, this project did not have Luna’s catastrophic failure and their technology is arguably more ground-breaking than Luna.

Also strong agree with point 4. The ‘calculators’ are based on DK’s initial proposal that suggested 1B initial supply. That was removed. When a specific parameter is removed, it is a gigantic red flag and at the same time, implies that it is not that any longer. My guess is that as DK caved to the builders’ alliance’s demand for a higher ‘cut’, he is thinking of some other tokenomics play that will definitely not benefit us.

Particularly, your prediction 1 makes great sense. As DK faces severe charges against him he is unlikely to lead Luna2 for long, and without a (controversial but) charismatic leader, Luna 2 may still be successful but in that case so can Luna 1, which has the ‘survivor narrative’.
Also agree with prediction 3. The community rebuilding sounds much better than ‘swept things under the r_ug and just went v2’. But of course we won’t hit 0.01 in the foreseeable future, perhaps not until the next market recovery.

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they are giving the largest share to the voters, i would be surprised if the vote failed. if they included ust holders in the vote, it sure would have failed

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Binance will not support the NEW LUNA, they will REMOVE the OLD LUNA, you will cry with a big 0 in your hand…

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To further elaborate after Dam shared the coins calculator.

I highly suggest everyone to at least use the calculator so that it can be a gauge to you on whether you should hold the coins in LUNA classic or switch to luna 2.0

This is my suggestions. Feel free to review or critic it.

At time of writing, Luna price is 0.000104

  1. If you purchase luna coins at price $0.01 to $100, i suggest you switch to Luna 2.0 and receive whatever little cash you can get back over the next few years. (Better than nothing). However, I do not see luna price exceeding double digits due to all the bad management done by the team over the last few weeks. Using the coin calculator, it will be great if you can even receive 5% back of the amount of money you have invested.

For those of you who purchase the coins at 0.0005 and below, I highly suggest you hold the coins and not exchange it. My prediction is that Luna Classic will eventually hit 0.0005 by next year even though there is 6.9 trillion supply of coins. Because Luna coin will become a meme coin but it has a community support better than other MEME coin like SHIBA and DOGE. Based on the calculator , if you switched to Luna 2.0 and Luna 2.0 stays between $1 to $10, you stand to get back 100 to 500% times lesser than if you keep your coins in Luna classic.

Because the luna 2.0 coins that you will be receiving will be so little and I dont expect Luna 2.0 coins to be worth much.

You can see how hard the team is pushing through the proposal and i believe many validators are against it hence they have not vote it or using it as a bargaining chip.

But if it is up to you to make the decision as to whether you want to switch. Even if you want to switch, you might not even qualify for the airdrop.

So do your own calculations and understand the risks involved!

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Thanks so much for the info.

So can I take from this.
1-I need to have my tokes on terra wallet to qualify for the airdrop?

As you say, is vague how you qualify for pre-luna token. I myself have a metamask address on the etherum mainet. Bought Luna on the Aurora Mainet and put them on on a liquidity pool.

if we go by wallet address transaction dates, I can proof I’m a pre-luna holder. but if I need to move my atluna coins to terra wallet, then there is no history on that wallet I was holding pre attack.

The should allow people to present their wallet address and transactions as proof.

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Better i buy Dogelon Mars.

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I need help, I transferred ust from terra station to AVAX address, but the ust did not arrive, I used bridge, who can help me

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To me, forking is the only way to relocate the current team to a new house.

And that is what I feel it is needed.

In Tom yam Kung crisis in 1997, governments and a lot of companies were bankrupt. Too many bad debt mixed with good debt.

The philosophy is to divide them into groups. In this case new Luna. For the bad one, UST and LUNC are another one.

Anyhow, there is a very high possibility that UST and LUNC could be easily revive, only need to call a new investors, teams to take over it.

Either burning LUNC, or just buying more than50%, it is business that could be very profitable.

LUNC and UST are completely eastrablished. A number of new startup does not need to start from scratch.

The victim, now, can wait to get back the fund, giving sometime for the resurrection of them.

I guess the total asset of LUNC and UST is around 11billion.

With a right team and investor could easily double them.

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History proved that,all forked token is less successful than the one before fork.
Especially,the most attractive part of luna is the stablecoin relationship.
Luna V2?It is a normal meme.Nothing special except the name.
Your prediction is right,let’s go and see.

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This thread was brought to you by the City of London Corporation and its shills.

I am really sorry for anyone that lost money, but if they understood the imbeciles that make up the world of TradFi and the fact that they would attack any DeFi competition that would challenge their international monopoly on money, they would have had better risk management regarding UST and LUNA, and any actual crypto project that is not sponsored by TradFi.

Of course, you will be smeared as a “conspiracy theorist” for having such awareness, but better being smeared and preserving wealth than being ignorant and losing it to a gang of lowlife criminals committing the same anti-competitive crimes for centuries. “Free markets at work” is the biggest conspiracy theory of the last 200 years.

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Basically, the new investors got cheated. The community voted to mint more LUNA, and dilute their own shares. New holders are not allowed to vote, and these cheaters and gonna take back their portions. Only idiots would buy this LUNA2 and give free money to these cheaters again. Well if they can just take back their shares anytime they don’t like how much they hold, they can always reverse the transactions again right?

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There will be no big exchanges who lists Luna v2. This is deadd birth project. Possibly you can’t even sell your Luna v2 tokens…

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very well said. kwon has kept the allocation of Luna 2.0 vague as hell.
No one knows for sure how much people will actually be getting.

In the earlier drafts he mentioned minting 1B new Luna 2.0 tokens, but in his current version he doesn’t mention 1B anymore.

Lets say it IS 1B.
In my case I’m in the post-attack group. That means we get 10%, which is 100m.
Issue is, how will that 100M be distributed? Is it a ratio based on how many luna 1.0 tokens we hold or is it based on how many luna 1.0 wallets there are? Because if you bought around 10 usd, or 1 usd, you’re NOT going to be able to compete with someone who bought sub-penny.

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Imagine a company that went bankrupt. its former shareholders don’t even own 0.01%, but they have all the say in the company.

New investors are ignored. Really funny.

We want them to be burned and those who were harmed to be compensated, while they are selfishly in a hurry to save their money with the new Luna, who is not even sure whether it will be listed or not and they do not act fairly in doing so.

Yes, you may have lost, but that does not mean that you will usurp someone else’s rights.

The new luna is not even guaranteed to be $0.1. No listing guarantee.

First, the lost trillions of LUNAs should be found and burned, and then they should be reduced to at least 1 billion levels with taxes.

Who were the trillions of lunas sent to? There is no information or even an investigation about it. If it was distributed to those who deserve it, it means that the owners of the old-dated luna. Then why are you complaining?

Luna has no value other than its volume at the moment.

You have sunk and you intend to sink us too.

How a successful luna can be produced and marketed in 1-2 weeks is just a dream.

Why are the assets held by the foundation for the bad day not spent, only these can provide for the damages of the victims?

Do Kwon is your killer, you continue to support him, he wants to direct the whole being towards himself again.

A silly, selfish and inconsistent plan.

A wise and fair plan please…

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Eth done it after their hack in 2016… that’s how you’ve got Eth Classic and Eth itself now… or am I mistaken?

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Do you think DK and The V is the same leader?
Totally different leadership and influencing.
I said most of the forked token,Eth maybe different because The V’s strong influence and the ability of technology.